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Election prediction

Posted by MonkeyMan on April 27, 2011 in Blog Post |

The Canadian Federal Election is this Monday. Polls indicate Layton surging and Ignatieff crashing. Not a big surprise but how will it play out on Monday?

My thoughts – while Jack Layton is well liked as a person and perhaps a leader, the poll numbers won’t translate into seats. Remember – when people hit the polls, they don’t vote for Layton (except those in his riding). While there will be increased support and votes for the NDP (and likely more seats for them), it will be at the expense of the Bloc and Liberals for the most part, so will in many ridings mean the Conservatives will win the seat, especially in ridings that were a Conservative/Liberal race.

My prediction – the Conservatives may just get a majority.

Either way, Iggy has crashed and burned, and the Liberals need a strong, younger and dynamic leader.

Look for some changes in leadership after this election, or we may end up doing the same thing over and over.


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